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17th Annual STAR-TIDES Capabilities Demonstration

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The 17th Annual STAR-TIDES Capabilities Demonstration will take place on April 15th-16th, 2024 at George Mason University’s Mason Square campus located at 3351 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, Virginia 22201.

The Demo will showcase products and activities of the STAR-TIDES (Sharing To Accelerate Research – Transformative Innovation for Development and Emergency Support) global knowledge-sharing network.

The network includes thousands of members engaged in building sustainable resilience, promoting human security, and creating life-changing social and economic activities. STAR-TIDES is coordinated through GMU’s Center for Resilient and Sustainable Communities (C-RASC).

This year’s theme is “Adapting to Climate Change,” emphasizing collaborative cross-sector approaches (such as energy + communications) to help communities adapt to the “new normal” of climate change in their region. As Thomas Friedman has pointed out, “it’s not the strongest, fastest, or smartest that survives, but rather the most adaptable.”

Click here to register.

STAR-TIDES 2024 Flyer

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Recommendations with corresponding justifications to policy and regulatory decision-makers/institutions for cross-sector regulatory standards

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Linton Wells II
Kathryn Blackmond Laskey
Center for Resilient and Sustainable Communities
George Mason University

Introduction
The purpose of this report is to provide recommendations, along with corresponding justifications, to policy and regulatory decision-makers and institutions for cross-sector regulatory standards to address and mitigate the risks of cascading infrastructure failures. A companion report [1] focuses on elements of five infrastructure sectors that are closely related to Department of Defense (DoD) planning and operations: energy, communications, transportation, information technology, and emergency services. That report reviews existing policy and regulatory standards for disaster response and resilience and then briefly describes the nature and importance of the cross-sector interactions in these areas and the components of resilience. It also examines available capabilities, and their limitations, for enabling coordinated, cross-sector planning and operation of critical cyber and physical infrastructures.

Recommendations Paper Final

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Policy and Regulations for Enabling Coordinated, Cross-Sector Planning and Operation of Critical Cyber and Physical Infrastructures: Strengths and Limitations

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Linton Wells II, Executive Advisory, Center for Resilient and Sustainable Communities (C-RASC), George Mason University
Kathryn Blackmond Laskey, Director Emerita, Center for Resilient and Sustainable Communities, George Mason University

Abstract
As climate change accelerates the frequency of disruptive events, and critical infrastructures become increasingly interdependent, there is a growing need to ensure the policies and standards for the nation’s critical infrastructure, including cyber-physical systems, are sufficiently robust and adaptable. This document focuses on elements of five infrastructure sectors that are closely related to DoD planning and operations: energy, communications, transportation, information technology, and emergency services. These have significant interdependencies and crosscutting cybersecurity vulnerabilities, which also are addressed in some detail. It reviews existing policy and regulatory standards for disaster response and resilience and then briefly describes the nature and importance of the cross-sector interactions in these areas and the components of resilience. It also examines capabilities that are available, and their limitations, for enabling coordinated, cross-sectoral planning and operation of critical cyber and physical infrastructures. A large amount of very good high-level guidance is available which emphasizes the need for cross-sector collaboration and the incorporation of cybersecurity. But turning these into effective plans and operations is hard. A regional area is used as a case study to illustrate the complex interactions that are needed to align public-private elements at the Federal, state, and local levels. The history and context of how existing policies were conceptualized, as well as their limitations are considered, along with emerging threats, including compound ones (cyberattacks in conjunction with man-made or natural disasters). Holes in capabilities and research topics are identified. A follow-on paper will provide recommendations with corresponding justifications to policy and regulatory decision-makers/institutions for cross-sectoral regulatory standards.

Cross Sector Infrastructure Policy Final

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Recommendations with Corresponding Justifications to Policy and Regulatory Decision-Makers/Institutions for Cross-Sector Regulatory Standards

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Policy and Regulations for Enabling Coordinated, Cross-Sector Planning and Operation of Critical Cyber and Physical Infrastructures: Strengths and Limitations

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Cross-Sector Infrastructure Policy

Abstract

As climate change accelerates the frequency of disruptive events, and critical infrastructures become increasingly interdependent, there is a growing need to ensure the policies and standards for the nation’s critical infrastructure, including cyber-physical systems, are sufficiently robust and adaptable. This document focuses on elements of five infrastructure sectors that are closely related to DoD planning and operations: energy, communications, transportation, information technology, and emergency services.  These have significant interdependencies and crosscutting cybersecurity vulnerabilities, which also are addressed in some detail. It reviews existing policy and regulatory standards for disaster response and resilience and then briefly describes the nature and importance of the cross-sector interactions in these areas and the components of resilience.  It also examines capabilities that are available, and their limitations, for enabling coordinated, cross-sectoral planning and operation of critical cyber and physical infrastructures. A large amount of very good high-level guidance is available which emphasizes the need for cross-sector collaboration and the incorporation of cybersecurity.  But turning these into effective plans and operations is hard. A regional area is used as a case study to illustrate the complex interactions that are needed to align public-private elements at the Federal, state, and local levels.  The history and context of how existing policies were conceptualized, as well as their limitations are considered, along with emerging threats, including compound ones (cyberattacks in conjunction with man-made or natural disasters).  Holes in capabilities and research topics are identified.  A follow-on paper will provide recommendations with corresponding justifications to policy and regulatory decision-makers/institutions for cross-sectoral regulatory standards.

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C-RASC’s Dr. Tonya Thornton Speaks at COP28

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From November 30 to December 12, 2023, global policy leaders gathered in Dubai, United Arab Emirates,  for COP28, the United Nations Climate Change Conference.

COP28, or the 28th Conference of the Parties, is a crucial international event focused on addressing climate change. It brings together governing officials, thought leaders, policymakers, scientists, and stakeholders from around the world to discuss and collaborate on strategies to combat the ongoing global climate crisis.

Topics included carbon emissions reduction, renewable energy adoption, climate adaptation, and financing mechanisms to support climate action planning. The conference serves as a vital platform for nations to come together and work towards a sustainable and resilient future for the planet.

Among these leaders was C-RASC Member and former Co-Principal Investigator, Dr. Tonya E. Thornton.

Before her departure from Mason, Dr. Thornton also served as a Research Professor and the Director of Grants at Mason’s  Schar School of Policy and Government and was an Advisory Council Member for the Institute for a Sustainable Earth. Currently, Dr. Thornton is the Director of Critical Infrastructure Protection at the Global Connective Center and as an Advisory Committee Member for the STAR-TIDES Network. The GCC is an independent, non-partisan integrator, which brings together world class expertise, leading-edge technologies, and system-of-systems integration to deliver extraordinary solutions.

At COP28, Dr. Thornton was the subject of an executive interview titled: Keeping The Supply Chain Online: How Sustainable Digital Infrastructure Is ‘mission Critical’ For Climate Adaptation And Disaster Resilience.

Using her academic background and diverse professional experiences, Dr. Thornton had the opportunity to provide a unique ‘pracademic’ perspective on the issues at hand, including disruptive technology, cyber security, climate crisis, and the environment.

The motif of her talk was clear: risks from disasters, such as natural exposures, human-induced hazards, cyber security attacks, and pandemics, are rapidly increasing. As government and industry leaders gather at events, such as COP28, responding to, coping with, recovering from, and rebuilding after those disruptive events will be essential for future planning and preparedness activities.

To mitigate these challenges, Dr. Thornton highlighted the critical infrastructure systems identified for the successful functioning of government at the community level. These include:

  • Ensuring the availability of clean drinking water is essential for safeguarding public health and supporting all human endeavors. Additionally, the appropriate treatment of wastewater is crucial in disease prevention and environmental protection.
  • Facilitating the seamless movement of lawful travelers and goods, without causing significant disruptions to trade, undue concerns about safety, or compromising civil liberties, is essential. These services also play a critical role in providing essential support to communities and are of utmost importance.
  • Items and offerings that contribute to the effective functioning of our modern, information-driven global society hold immense significance. Networks empower individuals across the globe to connect, access information instantaneously, and communicate even from remote locations.
  • Providing fuels to the transportation sector, delivering electricity to homes and businesses, and supplying other essential energy sources that play a crucial role in supporting growth and production throughout the nation, which boasts wide diversity and geographic spread.

Lastly, Dr. Thornton’s plea to participants was straightforward: grasping the significance, origins, seriousness, and frequency of potential threats, whether inferred or real, is fundamental to the process of finding whole-of-nation solutions.

Learn more about COP28 here.

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Groundwater Level Prediction with Machine Learning to Support Sustainable Irrigation in Water Scarcity Regions

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Wanru Li, Mekuanent Muluneh Finsa, Kathryn Blackmond Laskey, Paul Houser, and Rupert Douglas-Bate

Predicting groundwater levels is challenging, especially in regions of water scarcity where data availability is often limited. However, these regions have substantial water needs and require cost-effective groundwater utilization strategies. This study uses artificial intelligence to predict groundwater levels to provide guidance for drilling shallow boreholes for subsistence irrigation. The Bilate watershed, located 80 km north of Arba Minch in southern Ethiopia and covering just over 5250 km2, was selected as the study area. Bilate is typical of areas in Africa with high demand for water and limited availability of well data. Using a non-time series database of 75 boreholes, machine learning models, including multiple linear regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, artificial neural networks, random forest regression, and gradient boosting regression (GBR), were constructed to predict the depth to the water table. The study considered 20 independent variables, including elevation, soil type, and seasonal data (spanning three seasons) for precipitation, specific humidity, wind speed, land surface temperature during day and night, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). GBR performed the best of the approaches, with an average 0.77 R-squared value and a 19 m median absolute error on testing data. Finally, a map of predicted water levels in the Bilate watershed was created based on the best model, with water levels ranging from 1.6 to 245.9 m. With the limited set of borehole data, the results show a clear signal that can provide guidance for borehole drilling decisions for sustainable irrigation with additional implications for drinking water.

 

Click here to read the full research article.

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Bridging the digital divide for Native American tribes: Roadblocks to broadband and community resilience

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Karina V. Korostelina, Jocelyn Barrett

Native American reservations are faced with a growing need for High-speed Internet and broadband access but face a variety of barriers to broadband infrastructure deployment. This paper discusses the difficulties tribal nations have faced in developing their education, economy, and access to healthcare and public safety due to the roadblocks in building this infrastructure within their tribes. Using case studies and interviews from over 30 Native American tribes, we reveal the shift of responsibility from federal institutions to Native American communities, stressing a tendency to downplay structural factors of exclusion and inequality affecting tribes’ resilience practices. Our article advances the understanding of external and internal factors of roadblocks that Native American tribes have not yet been able to overcome, stemming from limitations of support by state and government institutions, limited capacities and knowledge among tribal members, and complex terrain that also has a sacred value to tribes. Results indicate that resilient communities can produce and sustain practices to overcome internal obstacles, during which resilience practices continue expanding the community’s capacity to develop its digital systems and leadership.

Click here to read the full research article.

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Summer 2023 GRF Seminar Recap

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Summer 2023 GRF Seminar Recap

Wei Dai: Offline Simulation Online Learning in Decision Support Analytic

The work is a continuation of the previous multi-fidelity framework, designed to enhance the efficiency of selecting the best design from a vast array of alternative decisions. This proposed framework is particularly relevant in scenarios where performance estimation relies on costly and time-consuming high-fidelity simulations. The integration of low-cost, cheaper low-fidelity information can efficiently aid in optimization.

The greatest novelty of the proposed algorithm, ‘Offline Simulation Online Learning (OSOL),’ lies in its online update feature. By utilizing partial data or information at hand, we gradually learn from the data, leading to more efficient and accurate decision-making processes, especially in complex designs. We have theoretically demonstrated that this update is expected to achieve the same effects as the previous framework. Meanwhile, by training low-fidelity models offline and updating high-fidelity models online, the computational intensity typically associated with high-fidelity simulations can be significantly mitigated. Another advantage of the proposed algorithm is that its online component allows for a more flexible and dynamic response to changing data. This timely update capability is crucial in rapidly changing environments or where continual improvement or monitoring of the model is necessary.

The proposed algorithm has broad applications in fields where simulation plays a critical role in system design and optimization. Currently, the proposed algorithm performs well in several test cases we have experimented with.


Mohammadreza Torkjazi : A Resilience-Based Data-Driven Methodology For Analyzing System Of Autonomous Systems 

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) are equipping constituent systems in System of Systems (SoS) with real-time learning and autonomous decision-making capabilities where the resulting system becomes a System of Autonomous Systems (SoAS). There are major Systems Engineering challenges for realization of SoAS, including evaluating the architecture and making decisions on the suitable Level of Autonomy (LoA) for each constituent system and understanding the SoAS-level emergent behaviors resulting from various LoAs and their interactions at the system level. In this project, Mr. Torkjazi and Dr. Raz  leverage innovative methods such as ML and Bayesian Networks (BN) and propose a data-driven methodology based on the resilience concept to:

  1. Identify the critical systems that are necessary to achieve the desired SoAS performance metrics ,
  2. Find the upper and lower limits of the performance measures of critical systems , and
  3. Visualize the causal relationships between critical performance metrics that are important for examining various scenarios in SoAS evaluation.

In conclusion, the level of autonomy in constituent systems is increasing because of AI/ML resulting in SoAS. There is a need to evaluate SoAS architecture and make decision on LoAs and understand the SoAS-level emergent behaviors in order to prevent them. This project proposed a data-driven methodology that leverages ML and BN to provide visualized analysis of SoAS while considering interactions between constituent systems.


Jocelyn Barrett: Enhancing Emergency Communications Resiliency: Effectiveness Through AI

The project is focused on three locations: George Mason University, Fairfax Country, Virginia, and Puerto Rico. At George Mason University, this included preparing to execute  Representative Connolly’s earmark for Enhancing Emergency Communications . In Fairfax County, this included collaboration with Fairfax County first responders to understand their perceptions and needs for AI, introduction of Particip.ai programs, and in Puerto Rico , this included the development of an operational community connectivity hub (CCH) and aims to enhance Internet resiliency through identifying power-comms interactions. Pulling from the discussion with Fairfax Emergency Responders, six critical areas were pinpointed for AI involvement that could bolster effectiveness both within their department and in the community. This included, digital inclusion, education, data management and analytics, management and optimization, multilingualism, and community engagement. In turn, the potential benefits were identified: improved 9-1-1 call handling, integrating real-time public feedback and improving cyber resiliency.

In conclusion, initial scoping, prototyping, testing and installation , training, maintenance and capacity building resulted in the ability to develop  transferable and transportable project capacity.


Ahmad Alghamdi: A Model-Based Systems Engineering Framework For Resilience Architecture in Complex Adaptive Systems 

The interoperability and complexity of today’s system make it more vulnerable to disruption. This study shows how systems architecture can withstand disruption and maintain an acceptable service level. Then a framework for system resilience according to defined attributes based on architecture design patterns is defined. This thesis examines the role of systems architecture in evaluating system resilience in complex adaptive systems and the approach uses Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) to create system architecture and execute the model to ensure capturing emerging behavior in complex adaptive systems. The project examines the role of systems architecture in evaluating system resilience in complex adaptive systems, while the approach uses Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) to create system architecture and execute the model to ensure capturing emerging behavior in complex adaptive systems. In turn, this will aid in creating a framework for evaluating resilience. The research will begin by creating a use case to examine the behavior aspect. As we cannot ignore the dynamic behavior of ACS.


Nischal Newar: Designing a Resilient Infrastructure Learning Game to Evaluate Maintenance Decisions 

Given the fact that  Critical Infrastructure systems (water, transportation, power) are vital for society , the challenges Rising natural disasters and cyber attacks are increasingly worrisome. In turn, this project aims to enhance decision-making through simulation-based educational games and improve human decision-making as players process new data over time. In essence, the goal is to  design a learning game to collect data, evaluate humans’ decisions on restoration/maintenance strategies, and compare these strategies to optimal solutions .

In conclusion,  the Effective Educational Approach: Game-based learning is impactful for students and decision makers, offering interactive and effective learning experiences. This includes:

  • Interconnected Infrastructures: The study highlights the importance of understanding interdependencies between infrastructure systems.
  • Resilience Insights: The study’s aim was to uncover the effects of restoration decisions on network resilience.
  • Awareness Enhancement: Feedback from focus group indicates the success of raising awareness about network resilience evolution post disruptions.
  • Comprehensive Role Play: Participants embraced dual roles as water and road managers, improving their grasp of component interplay.
  • Future Research: Building on the gained insights, the study progresses to a new phase – the Evacuation/Emergency Planning game.

Wanru Li: Modeling Optimal Drilling Location (Modl) Project Briefing 

In Ethiopia, small farmers comprise 95% of all farmers, which includes about 80% of the population. If needed, Ethiopian farmers could take micro-loans to construct wells for irrigation. It is important to note that affordable borehole depth are less than 30 meters. In this study, the research questions include:

  • What are the groundwater table depths and how can we predict them across the entire study area using limited data?
  • How can we quantify groundwater potential within the study area?
  • What factors can impact the groundwater recharge in the study area?
  • What methods can be employed to determine the most suitable locations for drilling?

The overall objectives include supporting better decision making for where to drill shallow boreholes for sustainable irrigation (<30 meters), by subsistence small farmers and to help save time and money, by increasing the rate of successful boreholes drilled. Using publicly available data from NASA, including surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and precipitation, the results estimated the groundwater recharge using surface and subsurface runoff in Rift Valley, Ethiopia.

 

 

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STAR-TIDES & C-RASC 16th Annual Capabilities Demo

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The Center for Resilient and Sustainable Communities (C-RASC) is excited to be collaborating with Sharing To Accelerate Research–TransformativeInnovation for Development and Emergency Support (STAR-TIDES) on its 16th Annual Tech Demo at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. The three-day conference is scheduled for April 17-19, 2023 and will feature a number of panels, speakers, and exhibits. The theme of this year’s program is Sustainable Resilience in the Face of Climate Change. Exhibits will include areas such as energy; housing & infrastructure, water, sanitation & hygiene; mobility & transportation; health care and public health. Additionally, companies and organizations that exhibit at George Mason University will be invited to participate in the TIDES follow-on event at the Pentagon Center Courtyard from April 20-21, 2023. For more information and registration for the free and public event, please click here.